History has a way of repeating itself—sometimes as tragedy, sometimes as farce. With Emmerson Mnangagwa now at the helm of SADC (Southern African Development Community), the ghosts of Zimbabwe's 1998 intervention in the DRC are resurfacing. Back then, Robert Mugabe sent 12,000 Zimbabwean troops into the heart of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to prop up Laurent-Désiré Kabila, a move that drained Zimbabwe's economy and enriched a select few. Could history be about to repeat itself?
The stakes are high. Eastern DRC is once again a war zone, with M23 rebels, Rwanda's shadowy involvement, and SADC boots already on the ground. Mnangagwa, like Mugabe before him, has deep ties to the military elite, and where there's conflict, there's money to be made—especially in cobalt, diamonds, and gold.
But before we panic, let's break it down.
Why This Feels Like 1998 All Over Again
1️⃣ SADC's Military Role in the DRC & Beyond • In 1998, Zimbabwe justified its invasion under SADC's Mutual Defense Pact•
Fast-forward to 2025—SADC already has a military mission in eastern DRC (SAMIDRC) and is fighting insurgents in Mozambique's Cabo Delgado region. Military intervention is on the table.
2️⃣ Mnangagwa's Military Ties
• In the 1990s, Mnangagwa played a key role in Zimbabwe's military-industrial complex.
• Today, he relies heavily on military support to stay in power. The generals have vested interests, and war could mean new business opportunities for them.
3️⃣ Eastern DRC Is a Powder Keg
• The region is as unstable as ever—M23 rebels have taken over key areas, South African troops have suffered casualties, and Rwanda is accused of meddling.
• If SADC escalates, Mnangagwa could be tempted to take a leading role, just as Mugabe did in 1998.
Why Zimbabwe Can't Afford Another War
1️⃣ The Economy Is in Tatters
• Unlike in 1998, when Zimbabwe could still sustain a military campaign, today's economy is in crisis.
• Sending troops to the DRC would be a financial disaster, and Mnangagwa knows it.
2️⃣ SADC Isn't Mugabe's Playground Anymore
• Back in 1998, Mugabe made the call—other SADC leaders simply followed.
• Now, South Africa and Angola hold more power in SADC military decisions. Mnangagwa doesn't have the same influence Mugabe once did.
3️⃣ The World Is Watching
• The UN, AU, and Western nations are keeping a close eye on the situation.
• A full-scale military intervention by Zimbabwe would trigger international backlash—and Mnangagwa is still trying to rebuild Zimbabwe's relationship with the West.
What's More Likely to Happen?
🔹 Diplomatic Mediation – Mnangagwa could position himself as a regional peace broker rather than a warlord.
🔹 Small-Scale Military Support – Zimbabwe might send advisors or elite units, but not a full army.
🔹 Economic Deals Instead of War – Instead of military intervention, Zimbabwean elites might angle for lucrative mining contracts in the DRC.
Will Mnangagwa Go to War?
Mnangagwa might talk tough, but a full repeat of 1998's intervention is unlikely. Zimbabwe is broke, SADC is more diplomatically cautious, and Western eyes are on the region. However, if SADC ramps up military involvement, Zimbabwe could still play a supporting role—but don't expect tanks rolling into Kinshasa again.
The real question is: Will Mnangagwa use his SADC leadership to push for peace, or will economic greed and military influence pull Zimbabwe back into conflict?
What do you think? Should Zimbabwe stay out of the DRC, or is intervention necessary? Let's talk in the comments. ⬇️
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